With Gavin Newsom term-limited, the 2026 California Governor's race is the most open in a generation. Four candidates have emerged as serious contenders: Steve Hilton on the right, and Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, and Katie Porter splitting the Democratic lane. Here's a clear-eyed look at each.
The candidates
The former Fox News host and tech entrepreneur is the clear Republican frontrunner. Hilton pitches himself as a "common sense" conservative who can appeal to working-class voters fed up with California's housing costs, crime, and homelessness. He supports expanding housing supply by cutting regulations, increasing law enforcement funding, and reversing progressive criminal justice reforms. He's a long shot in the general election against any Democrat, but prediction markets give him a 73% chance of advancing from the primary.
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The former US Attorney General and California AG is the establishment Democrat in the race. Becerra has deep experience in healthcare policy, immigration, and civil rights litigation. His campaign is built around protecting abortion access, defending California's progressive legacy, and expanding healthcare coverage. Critics on the left see him as too centrist; critics on the right see him as a product of the same Democratic machine that has governed California for two decades. He's the most likely Democrat to face Hilton in November.
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The billionaire climate activist and 2020 presidential candidate is running on an aggressive climate and economic equity platform. Steyer wants California to lead on climate transition, invest heavily in clean energy jobs, and tackle the housing crisis through large-scale public investment. His self-funding ability gives him staying power in the primary, but his path to the general is narrow given Becerra's institutional support.
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The former Congressmember and Senate candidate is a long shot after her unsuccessful 2024 Senate run, but remains popular with progressives. Porter built her reputation holding corporations and banks accountable through congressional hearings. Her platform focuses on consumer protection, healthcare costs, and corporate accountability. Despite strong name recognition, she's struggling to break through in a crowded Democratic primary.
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The key issues in this race
| Issue | Hilton | Becerra | Steyer | Porter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing supply | Deregulate + build | Expand funding | Public investment | Tenant protections |
| Climate | Skeptical of mandates | Strong action | Top priority | Strong action |
| Crime / public safety | More enforcement | Balanced approach | Prevention focus | Reform-oriented |
| Healthcare | Market-based | ACA expansion | Universal coverage | Lower drug costs |
| Economy | Tax cuts, deregulation | Managed growth | Green economy | Corporate accountability |
What the primary actually decides
California uses a top-two primary system — the two candidates with the most votes advance to November regardless of party. In practice, this almost certainly means Hilton faces whichever Democrat consolidates the most votes. Prediction markets give Becerra the best odds among Democrats, but if Steyer or Porter pulls votes away, it could scramble the result.
For Republican-leaning voters, Hilton is the only serious option. For Democratic voters, your primary vote is effectively a choice between which Democrat you want in the November showdown against Hilton — and that choice matters.
The bottom line
If your top priorities are law enforcement, housing deregulation, and fiscal conservatism: Hilton is your candidate.
If you want an experienced Democrat who can win in November and protect California's progressive institutions: Becerra is the safe choice.
If climate is your single biggest issue and you want the most aggressive action: Steyer has the most ambitious platform.
If corporate accountability and consumer protection drive your vote: Porter, even as a long shot.
The Governor race will define California's direction for the next four years. It's worth spending two minutes finding out which candidate actually aligns with your values.