The California Governor's race is shaping up to be Hilton vs. Becerra in November — a rematch of the ideological battle California has been having with itself for a decade. Here's the definitive head-to-head breakdown.
Who they are
Steve Hilton was born in England, worked as a strategist for David Cameron's Conservative government, then moved to Silicon Valley and reinvented himself as a tech-influenced populist conservative. He hosted a Fox News show, founded a political tech company, and has been building his California political brand for years. He represents a new kind of Republican: socially moderate on some issues, hawkish on crime, housing deregulation, and anti-establishment politics. Prediction markets give him a 73% chance of advancing from the primary.
Xavier Becerra served in Congress for 24 years, then as California Attorney General, then as Biden's Secretary of Health and Human Services. He's the embodiment of California's Democratic establishment — deeply experienced in healthcare, immigration, and civil rights, closely tied to organized labor and the state party infrastructure. Prediction markets give him a 65% chance of advancing from the primary as the leading Democrat.
Issue by issue
Housing and homelessness
Steve Hilton
California's housing crisis is a direct result of overregulation — environmental reviews, local zoning, permitting delays, union labor requirements. Strip them away, let the market build faster.
Xavier Becerra
Continued public investment in affordable housing, expanded tenant protections, state funds to incentivize local governments to rezone. More skeptical of pure market solutions.
Bottom line: If you believe the housing crisis is a regulatory problem, Hilton's approach is more direct. If you believe the market alone won't build affordable units, Becerra's public investment model is more aligned.
Crime and public safety
Steve Hilton
Reverse criminal justice reforms of the Gascón era, restore cash bail, increase sentences for repeat offenders, fund law enforcement at higher levels. Frames this as common sense.
Xavier Becerra
Balanced approach — maintaining reform-era changes while investing in community violence intervention and mental health diversion programs. Not running as tough on crime, not as a reformer either.
Bottom line: Hilton has the sharper, more aggressive position on public safety. Becerra is more centrist than he might appear.
Climate and energy
Steve Hilton
Skeptical of California's aggressive climate mandates. Argues the EV mandate and building electrification requirements hurt working-class Californians. Supports an "all of the above" energy strategy including natural gas.
Xavier Becerra
Firmly committed to California's climate leadership. Supports the 2035 EV mandate, aggressive building electrification, and offshore wind development.
Bottom line: Your position on climate probably determines your governor vote more than any other single issue.
The general election math
California hasn't elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 2:1 in voter registration.
For Hilton to win in November, he needs to win nearly every Republican, a large majority of independents, and peel off a meaningful chunk of Democrats — especially moderate homeowners in the suburbs frustrated by housing costs and crime.
Prediction markets give the Democratic nominee roughly a 60-65% chance of winning the general, with Hilton at 35-40%. Not insurmountable — but not favorable for a Republican in a state this blue.
Who you should vote for
If you're a Republican or right-leaning independent who wants lower taxes, less regulation, and stronger law enforcement: Hilton is your candidate, and he's the only serious Republican in this race.
If you're a Democrat who wants the strongest candidate in November and values healthcare and immigration policy experience above all: Becerra is the safe, proven choice.
If climate is your single biggest issue: Tom Steyer is still in the race at 37% odds and has the most aggressive climate agenda of any candidate. See the full California Governor 2026 breakdown for his complete profile.